Study: Jacksonville Home Prices will Climb Back to Their Peak in 2020

10 04 2010

Jacksonville area home prices aren’t expected to return to their 2006 high until 2020, but it will be much longer for other Florida markets, according to data from financial services technology company Fiserv Inc.

Jacksonville hit its house price peak in the second quarter of 2006, Fiserv (Nasdaq: FISV) reported, and isn’t expected to hit its trough until the second quarter of 2011, which is estimated to be down 39.3 percent from the peak. Prices are expected to return to their previous peak in Jacksonville in the second quarter of 2020.

While 2020 might seem like a long haul, all but two of the 22 Florida markets included in the study will have longer to wait. Panama City is expected to return to its peak in 2014 and Gainesville is expected to return to its peak in 2017.

Orlando, Naples, Miami and Punta Gorda are four of the eight markets out of 381 markets in the study that are not expected to return to their peak prices until after 2039. The other four markets not expected to return to their peak until after 2039 are in California.

“We see several powerful forces in the market that will severely hinder the housing recoveries of many metro areas, particularly in the hard-hit states of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada,” Fiserv Chief Economist David Stiff said. “It will take these markets 15 or more years before home prices climb back to their peaks.”

But not all markets have such a long and painful recovery ahead of them. Areas of the country that did not experience large declines in price are expected to recover more quickly.

The study reported at least two markets, Anchorage, Alaska, and Texarkana, Texas, already returned to their peaks in the first quarter of this year. Fairbanks, Alaska, is expected to return to its peak in the fourth quarter. Utica, N.Y.; College Station, Texas; Cheyenne, Wyo.; and Billings, Mont., are all expected to return to their peaks in the first quarter of 2011.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal


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