Pass the Emergency Economic Stability Act (EESA)

30 09 2008

As a real estate professional and member of the National Association of REALTORS, I wrote a letter to Senator Bill Nelson, Senator Mel Martinez and Representative Ander Crenshaw to urge them to support a bipartisan plan that brings an end to the current credit crisis crippling the housing and financial markets. The final plan MUST protect homeowners and the American taxpayers. I supported the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and am pleased with the safe guards in that bill.

Keeping people in their home and protecting ‘Main Street’ not only benefits individual families, but helps bring stability to the housing market which greatly impacts the overall U.S. economy. Across the country, REALTORS see and feel the loss of confidence by both buyers and sellers, and now buyers are finding it harder to get mortgages.

The faster Congress acts to relieve this constraint, the sooner we’ll see a broad stabilization in home prices that in turn will help the economy recover. Historically, housing has led the nation out of economic downturns — there will not be an economic recovery without a housing recovery.

Advertisements




The Meltdown of Wall Street and Main Street

30 09 2008

The U.S. woke up to the demise of yet another high-street banking name today as the troubled finance group Wachovia agreed to a rescue takeover by the world’s biggest bank, Citigroup.

Federal regulators helped to broker a deal in which Citigroup will absorb $42 billion (£23 billion) of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans held by Wachovia, which has a bulging portfolio of risky mortgages known as “option ARMs”.

Under the deal, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will absorb any losses beyond Citigroup’s agreed liability in return for $12 billion of preferred stock for bearing the risk.

The FDIC stressed that Wachovia did not fail, unlike Washington Mutual which was seized by the authorities after suffering a run on deposits last Thursday. The government sold most of Washington Mutual to JPMorgan Chase for approximately $1.9 billion. Washington Mutual became the US’s biggest bank failure in 30 years.

Wachovia’s demise came as the U.S. House of Representatives voted down the Emergency Economic Stability Act of 2008. The measure was struck down by a vote of 228-205. There was a panicked sell-off and the financial markets went for a free fall after leaders in the House of Representatives failed to deliver the Republican votes many had expected to pass a financial bailout package.

Such panic is unwarranted. The world should take a deep breath and consider whether defeat of a deeply flawed bill should be treated as a catastrophe or a rallying cry to develop a better plan that addressed the underlying issues that need to be fixed.

I think the problem with trying to legislate in the middle of a revolution is that you aren’t sure whether you are governing the world that is being destroyed or the one that is coming into being. There can be little question that the Wall Street that existed at the beginning of this year is no longer the industry that Congress is seeking to rescue from its own excesses. The financial world has been permanently altered by the collapse of the debt bubble that inexorably built up over the past three decades. Now Congress is trying to design a rescue plan for a world whose shape is highly contingent and unstable. Such an undertaking requires more than two weeks of work. Conventional thinking tells us that the government must do something to stabilize the markets immediately, and that doing something is better than doing nothing. Once again, conventional thinking is wrong. Congress would be much better advised to take the extra few days or week it would take to structure a plan that the world is going to have to live with for a very long time. It is now time for America to take the pain and figure out how to move forward.

Steven Malanga, Editor for RealClearMarkets wrote this:

“Journalists like simple stories with clear-cut villains. So, in the financial crisis, Time magazine tells us that Wall Street “sold out” America, while The New York Times decries “Wall Street’s . . . real-estate bender.”

Such chatter makes it easy to forget that this mess began with a heap of bad mortgages made by consumers who never came within a hundred miles of the cardsharps on Wall Street.

The inability (and in a good deal of cases, the unwillingness) of these ordinary Americans to pay back these loans (many sitting in mortgage-backed securities held by institutions around the world) helped tilt us toward this systemic threat to our financial system.

Even as we focus on bad bets and lousy leverage ratios on Wall Street, these toxic mortgages continue to unwind. As they do, we’re getting a better look at how they were made – and it’s not pretty. It’s clear that speculation and fraud – much of it on the part of borrowers – were rampant.

Indeed, mortgage fraud not only soared in the run-up to this mess, it’s still rising. The FBI says that reports of suspicious mortgage activity jumped tenfold from 2001 through 2007. And the Mortgage Asset Research Institute says it rose another 42 percent in this year’s first quarter.

As more mortgages have gone bad, researchers have looked into troubled portfolios and found startling rates of deception. For instance, the research firm BasePoint Analytics has estimated that 70 percent of subprime loans that default before they reset (exactly the kind that trouble the market right now) contain some kind of misrepresentation by the borrower, lender and/or broker.

One big category of deception: So-called no-doc loans, where the borrower agrees to pay a slightly higher interest rate in exchange for not documenting his income. Originally designed for self-employed workers who don’t have ready documentation from an employer, these mortgages became known as “liar loans,” because many people without sufficient income used them to qualify for financing they otherwise couldn’t get.

One lender compared what 100 applicants claimed as income on no-doc loans to what they reported to the IRS on their tax returns – and found 60 percent of borrowers were exaggerating their income by as much as half (or lying to the IRS).

Speculators are also part of the problem. As the housing market rose, more people got into the game of betting on higher prices by purchasing homes that they intended to flip quickly without ever occupying. As this grew popular, applicants starting lying about their intentions. They wanted to fool developers who’d grown wary of selling too many homes in new developments to people who’d never occupy them, since these are the buyers most likely to walk away from a mortgage when the market turns down. BasePoint Analytics has estimated that this form of misrepresentation accounts for 20 percent of mortgage fraud.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that the vast majority of delinquent mortgages and homes in foreclosure are in a handful of states (led by California and Florida) where the housing trouble was largest and where speculation was common. Together, these states accounted for a whopping 58 percent of all subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that went into foreclosure in the second quarter of this year.

In fact, so concentrated are the problems that only eight states have foreclosure rates above the national average. While the rate of new foreclosures for subprime ARMs in the quarter was a whopping 6.63 percent, it was just 0.34 percent for traditional fixed-rate mortgages. “For the quarter, a majority of states saw relatively little change” in their foreclosure numbers, notes the MBA report.

The ongoing fraud is still concentrated in the “meltdown” states (again led by Florida and California). In those states, moreover, the fraud reports are most common on properties near the coastlines – that is, in areas where many purchases are for speculation or investment (that is, not for a home to live in).

The FBI warns that a sinking market is ripe for new types of fraud, as individuals try to get out of a fiscal mess using further misrepresentations or as scam artists perpetrate fraud under the guise of helping consumers stuck in bad loans.

Since we seem to have had a generation of mortgage borrowers who at the least didn’t understand the loans they took out, and at the worst were committing fraud, that FBI warning suggests we won’t see the end of the bad-mortgage crisis anytime soon.

On the bright side, there won’t be a lot of investment banks packaging these new bad loans into toxic securities that threaten the world financial system.”

Steven made a very interesting point indeed…

I couldn’t help but think as the market continues to shift and we all do our best to weather the political and economic roller coasters of the day, it’s important to remember that we are all in this together. Like many people, I take real comfort in knowing that there are people resources we can all turn to when we need a hand to help, and ear to bend or shoulder to lean on. I am here to answer any real estate questions you have about how these ongoing market changes might affect you and your family.





The Meltdown of Wall Street and Main Street

29 09 2008

The U.S. woke up to the demise of yet another high-street banking name today as the troubled finance group Wachovia agreed to a rescue takeover by the world’s biggest bank, Citigroup.

Federal regulators helped to broker a deal in which Citigroup will absorb $42 billion (£23 billion) of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans held by Wachovia, which has a bulging portfolio of risky mortgages known as “option ARMs”.

Under the deal, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will absorb any losses beyond Citigroup’s agreed liability in return for $12 billion of preferred stock for bearing the risk.

The FDIC stressed that Wachovia did not fail, unlike Washington Mutual which was seized by the authorities after suffering a run on deposits last Thursday. The government sold most of Washington Mutual to JPMorgan Chase for approximately $1.9 billion. Washington Mutual became the US’s biggest bank failure in 30 years.

Wachovia’s demise came as the U.S. House of Representatives voted down the Emergency Economic Stability Act of 2008. The measure was struck down by a vote of 228-205. There was a panicked sell-off and the financial markets went for a free fall after leaders in the House of Representatives failed to deliver the Republican votes many had expected to pass a financial bailout package.

Such panic is unwarranted. The world should take a deep breath and consider whether defeat of a deeply flawed bill should be treated as a catastrophe or a rallying cry to develop a better plan that addressed the underlying issues that need to be fixed.

I think the problem with trying to legislate in the middle of a revolution is that you aren’t sure whether you are governing the world that is being destroyed or the one that is coming into being. There can be little question that the Wall Street that existed at the beginning of this year is no longer the industry that Congress is seeking to rescue from its own excesses. The financial world has been permanently altered by the collapse of the debt bubble that inexorably built up over the past three decades. Now Congress is trying to design a rescue plan for a world whose shape is highly contingent and unstable. Such an undertaking requires more than two weeks of work. Conventional thinking tells us that the government must do something to stabilize the markets immediately, and that doing something is better than doing nothing. Once again, conventional thinking is wrong. Congress would be much better advised to take the extra few days or week it would take to structure a plan that the world is going to have to live with for a very long time. It is now time for America to take the pain and figure out how to move forward.

Steven Malanga, Editor for RealClearMarkets wrote this:

“Journalists like simple stories with clear-cut villains. So, in the financial crisis, Time magazine tells us that Wall Street “sold out” America, while The New York Times decries “Wall Street’s . . . real-estate bender.”

Such chatter makes it easy to forget that this mess began with a heap of bad mortgages made by consumers who never came within a hundred miles of the cardsharps on Wall Street.

The inability (and in a good deal of cases, the unwillingness) of these ordinary Americans to pay back these loans (many sitting in mortgage-backed securities held by institutions around the world) helped tilt us toward this systemic threat to our financial system.

Even as we focus on bad bets and lousy leverage ratios on Wall Street, these toxic mortgages continue to unwind. As they do, we’re getting a better look at how they were made – and it’s not pretty. It’s clear that speculation and fraud – much of it on the part of borrowers – were rampant.

Indeed, mortgage fraud not only soared in the run-up to this mess, it’s still rising. The FBI says that reports of suspicious mortgage activity jumped tenfold from 2001 through 2007. And the Mortgage Asset Research Institute says it rose another 42 percent in this year’s first quarter.

As more mortgages have gone bad, researchers have looked into troubled portfolios and found startling rates of deception. For instance, the research firm BasePoint Analytics has estimated that 70 percent of subprime loans that default before they reset (exactly the kind that trouble the market right now) contain some kind of misrepresentation by the borrower, lender and/or broker.

One big category of deception: So-called no-doc loans, where the borrower agrees to pay a slightly higher interest rate in exchange for not documenting his income. Originally designed for self-employed workers who don’t have ready documentation from an employer, these mortgages became known as “liar loans,” because many people without sufficient income used them to qualify for financing they otherwise couldn’t get.

One lender compared what 100 applicants claimed as income on no-doc loans to what they reported to the IRS on their tax returns – and found 60 percent of borrowers were exaggerating their income by as much as half (or lying to the IRS).

Speculators are also part of the problem. As the housing market rose, more people got into the game of betting on higher prices by purchasing homes that they intended to flip quickly without ever occupying. As this grew popular, applicants starting lying about their intentions. They wanted to fool developers who’d grown wary of selling too many homes in new developments to people who’d never occupy them, since these are the buyers most likely to walk away from a mortgage when the market turns down. BasePoint Analytics has estimated that this form of misrepresentation accounts for 20 percent of mortgage fraud.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that the vast majority of delinquent mortgages and homes in foreclosure are in a handful of states (led by California and Florida) where the housing trouble was largest and where speculation was common. Together, these states accounted for a whopping 58 percent of all subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that went into foreclosure in the second quarter of this year.

In fact, so concentrated are the problems that only eight states have foreclosure rates above the national average. While the rate of new foreclosures for subprime ARMs in the quarter was a whopping 6.63 percent, it was just 0.34 percent for traditional fixed-rate mortgages. “For the quarter, a majority of states saw relatively little change” in their foreclosure numbers, notes the MBA report.

The ongoing fraud is still concentrated in the “meltdown” states (again led by Florida and California). In those states, moreover, the fraud reports are most common on properties near the coastlines – that is, in areas where many purchases are for speculation or investment (that is, not for a home to live in).

The FBI warns that a sinking market is ripe for new types of fraud, as individuals try to get out of a fiscal mess using further misrepresentations or as scam artists perpetrate fraud under the guise of helping consumers stuck in bad loans.

Since we seem to have had a generation of mortgage borrowers who at the least didn’t understand the loans they took out, and at the worst were committing fraud, that FBI warning suggests we won’t see the end of the bad-mortgage crisis anytime soon.

On the bright side, there won’t be a lot of investment banks packaging these new bad loans into toxic securities that threaten the world financial system.”

Steven made a very interesting point indeed…

I couldn’t help but think as the market continues to shift and we all do our best to weather the political and economic roller coasters of the day, it’s important to remember that we are all in this together. Like many people, I take real comfort in knowing that there are people resources we can all turn to when we need a hand to help, and ear to bend or s
houlder to lean on. I am here to answer any real estate questions you have about how these ongoing market changes might affect you and your family.





Touchton Road Project to Begin in Mid Nov. ’08

27 09 2008

As part of the Better Jacksonville Plan, the City of Jacksonville announced it will soon begin construction of an extensive upgrade to Touchton Road between Belfort Road and Southside Boulevard. There will be roundabouts at intersection with Touchton Road in front of Wyngate Forest subdivision, Drayton Park community and Montreux Condominiums. Although there have been some delays along the way, construction is now scheduled to begin in mid-November 2008. Access to Wyngate Forest, Drayton Park and Montreux subdivisions will be maintained throughout the construction, which may last as long as 15 months. Residents will be able to exit in either direction most of the time.





Touchton Road Project to Begin in Mid Nov. ’08

26 09 2008

As part of the Better Jacksonville Plan, the City of Jacksonville announced it will soon begin construction of an extensive upgrade to Touchton Road between Belfort Road and Southside Boulevard. There will be roundabouts at intersection with Touchton Road in front of Wyngate Forest subdivision, Drayton Park community and Montreux Condominiums. Although there have been some delays along the way, construction is now scheduled to begin in mid-November 2008. Access to Wyngate Forest, Drayton Park and Montreux subdivisions will be maintained throughout the construction, which may last as long as 15 months. Residents will be able to exit in either direction most of the time.





Near-Term Home Sales to Stay in Narrow Range

18 09 2008

The level of home sales is expected to show little movement in the months ahead, according to the latest projections by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, fell 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.4 in June, which had risen 5.8 percent from May. The July index remains 6.8 percent below July 2007 when it stood at 92.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales continue to edge up and down. “Pending home sales are oscillating month-to-month, with the long-term trend essentially flat,” he said. “Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings.”

Even with the latest pullback, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. “Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets,” Yun said. “The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. The Northeast region retreated following a robust gain in the previous month, and soft activity was observed in the broad midsection of America despite very affordable conditions.”

The PHSI in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent to 81.6 in July but remains 2.4 percent below a year ago. In the South the index was unchanged, holding at 93.7, but is 13.4 percent below July 2007. The index in the Northeast fell 7.5 percent to 73.6 in July and is 13.2 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index dropped 10.6 percent to 90.3 but is 6.5 percent higher than July 2007.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord said there’s been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. “Unfortunately, many people in high-cost areas aren’t familiar with FHA programs, which is why we produced a toolkit so Realtors, lenders, and other real estate professionals can familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program,” he said.

“FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. We’re working with regulators to improve the process, and the good news is that this is becoming a big help to first-time buyers,” Gaylord said.

Yun said there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. “The economy is producing more, yet cutting jobs. A first-time home buyer tax credit and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers, yet buyer confidence remains low,” he said. “Even with the Treasury Department’s direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria, or if it will remain overly stringent. The housing market outlook is very cloudy.”

Yun mentioned that the speed and timing of a recovery depends on local market conditions. “Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver and Houston over the next two years,” Yun said. “In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in these areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters.”

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are projected to total 5.01 million this year before rising 6.9 percent in 2009 to 5.35 million. After declining an average of 4 to 7 percent this year, home prices are forecast to rise by 2 to 4 percent next year.

New-home sales will total about 508,000 in 2008 and 463,000 next years, down significantly from 775,000 in 2007. With builders motivated to clear inventory, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably fall 17.1 percent in 2009 to 801,000 units from 966,000 this year.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been moving up and down, should trend up to 6.6 percent by the end of this year, edging up to 6.7 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is likely to remain favorable throughout 2008, averaging 13 percentage points higher than last year.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to remain positive with a growth rate of 2.0 percent for all of 2008, and 2.0 percent also next year. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.8 percent over the coming year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is anticipated at 3.8 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 1.8 percent in 2008 and 2.1 percent next year.

Source: FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS





Near-Term Home Sales to Stay in Narrow Range

17 09 2008

The level of home sales is expected to show little movement in the months ahead, according to the latest projections by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, fell 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.4 in June, which had risen 5.8 percent from May. The July index remains 6.8 percent below July 2007 when it stood at 92.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales continue to edge up and down. “Pending home sales are oscillating month-to-month, with the long-term trend essentially flat,” he said. “Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings.”

Even with the latest pullback, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. “Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets,” Yun said. “The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. The Northeast region retreated following a robust gain in the previous month, and soft activity was observed in the broad midsection of America despite very affordable conditions.”

The PHSI in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent to 81.6 in July but remains 2.4 percent below a year ago. In the South the index was unchanged, holding at 93.7, but is 13.4 percent below July 2007. The index in the Northeast fell 7.5 percent to 73.6 in July and is 13.2 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index dropped 10.6 percent to 90.3 but is 6.5 percent higher than July 2007.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord said there’s been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. “Unfortunately, many people in high-cost areas aren’t familiar with FHA programs, which is why we produced a toolkit so Realtors, lenders, and other real estate professionals can familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program,” he said.

“FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. We’re working with regulators to improve the process, and the good news is that this is becoming a big help to first-time buyers,” Gaylord said.

Yun said there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. “The economy is producing more, yet cutting jobs. A first-time home buyer tax credit and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers, yet buyer confidence remains low,” he said. “Even with the Treasury Department’s direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria, or if it will remain overly stringent. The housing market outlook is very cloudy.”

Yun mentioned that the speed and timing of a recovery depends on local market conditions. “Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver and Houston over the next two years,” Yun said. “In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in these areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters.”

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are projected to total 5.01 million this year before rising 6.9 percent in 2009 to 5.35 million. After declining an average of 4 to 7 percent this year, home prices are forecast to rise by 2 to 4 percent next year.

New-home sales will total about 508,000 in 2008 and 463,000 next years, down significantly from 775,000 in 2007. With builders motivated to clear inventory, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably fall 17.1 percent in 2009 to 801,000 units from 966,000 this year.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been moving up and down, should trend up to 6.6 percent by the end of this year, edging up to 6.7 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is likely to remain favorable throughout 2008, averaging 13 percentage points higher than last year.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to remain positive with a growth rate of 2.0 percent for all of 2008, and 2.0 percent also next year. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.8 percent over the coming year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is anticipated at 3.8 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 1.8 percent in 2008 and 2.1 percent next year.

Source: FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS








%d bloggers like this: